In a report, Broadcast TV to Mobile - a solution looking for a problem?, Datamonitor expresses concern regarding some of the astronomical forecasts currently in the market place with respect to the growth prospects for broadcast TV to mobile services.
Comments Adrian Drozd, senior media and broadcasting analyst at Datamonitor, "Today, consumers are able to download short video clips over 2.5G and 3G networks. In the next few years, broadcast networks and next-generation handsets will be deployed, enabling them to watch broadcast TV on their mobile phone screens. However, growth of mobile TV may be limited by the problems over spectrum allocation, the high price of handsets, consumer unwillingness to pay an extra $10/month for mobile phone service and operators wanting to push 3G video services, not broadcast TV to mobile services. As such, Datamonitor takes as conservative outlook for broadcast TV."
According to the report, the video download services on 2.5 and 3G networks are not true broadcast TV services. The content is streamed to subscribers' phones on request using the operators' 2.5/3G network infrastructure. There are fundamental differences in the nature of unicast/bi-directional mobile phone networks and one-way/multicast broadcast networks. It is an inefficient use of limited network capacity to use mobile phone network to transmit a multicast service.
In global market share terms, Datamonitor expects DVB-H, one of three different technologies fighting it out to be the standard for mobile TV broadcast technology, to be the long-term leader. The three are DVB-H, DMB and MediaFLO, with a fourth, ISDB-T, unlikely to gain any traction outside of Japan - each with its own pros and cons. DMB is the only technology currently being used in commercial services (in South Korea) but commercial services from DVB-H and MediaFLO are expected to be launched by the second half of 2006.
Not only are there massive technical challenges for the mobile operators' networks, handset manufacturers are also under considerable pressure. If handsets lack aesthetic appeal, the services may not succeed - think of the slow take-up of 3G partly because of big, clunky phones. There are clearly serious issues to resolve between handset size and screen size, as well as battery life, and perhaps most importantly, cost, according to Datamonitor.
Models of Broadcast TV to mobile business, currently being developed by mobile network operators and content owners, are mostly based upon consumers paying about $10 per month. But if they're unwilling to pay on a regular basis, this new business opportunity may prove unprofitable. According to Datamonitor, the hacker community is certain to focus some of its efforts here, and software patches which enable free access or hacked SIM cards could become a significant problem. Robust security against such hacker activity will be critical.
The provision of content will be one of the key deciding factors as to whether consumers are going to appreciate the service, and, ultimately, pay for it. The underlying questions are whether the main TV channels will be available or will special mobile TV channels be developed or, more likely, will there be a mix of both existing and new channels.
Early results have shown that since viewers typically watch a maximum of 25 minutes per day, short movies, news, cartoons and sport highlights would therefore make excellent content for mobile TV. Full-length movies are less likely to be watched on mobile phones because of the relatively small screen size and the need to constantly hold the handset. In long car journeys, larger screen devices such as portable DVD players will be more prevalent, like today, reports Datamonitor.
Driven by such factors, Datamonitor has created a conservative forecast for the take-up of these services and is expecting 69m global subscribers in 2009, generating revenues (although not necessarily any profit) of $5.5bn.
