The fine art of telling 'national importance' from damp squib

Politics is all about communication: Barack Obama had a better spin machine than, well, anyone. George W. Bush had a clearer, simpler message than Al Gore.

On Friday afternoon, 10 February 2012, Government, through the Reserve Bank, put out a statement. It was just two sentences: "The Presidency of the Republic of South Africa, the Ministry of Finance and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will make an announcement of national importance. The President, Mr Jacob Zuma, the Minister of Finance, Mr Pravin Gordhan and the Governor of the SARB, Ms Gill Marcus will be in attendance."

Didn't think

It turned out to be about bank notes. For the person putting out the statement, it was probably a very innocent thing to say. Putting Nelson Mandela's face on our currency is of "national importance". Unfortunately, that person didn't think of what the names "Jacob Zuma", "Pravin Gordhan" and "Gill Marcus" mean together in the fevered minds of journalists. And it wasn't just journalists. It was market analysts, the people that make money move.

Later that afternoon, Bloomberg carried a story quoting such analysts as explaining why the rand had lost value. Simply put, most cynical observers presume a big announcement is coming when the markets are closed. Thus it must be something huge.

The first thought was that Marcus was leaving. It sounded natural: she's appointed by the president, and receives her mandate from the finance minister. The second thought was perhaps that Reserve Bank's mandate was being changed. This is just before the budget (which is the only time when such suggestions can be made official). It was only much later that the Mandela banknotes idea gained some currency.

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