NAB Joint Managing Director John Bowles says: "There's been a lot of bad press about press, but as far as we can see, the future doesn't look quite as disastrous for newspapers as some are making it out to be.
"Over the last 10 years AMPS shows that the illiterate segment of the population in South Africa has declined by over 30% and newspaper readership is up by over 40% for the population over the same period.
Other sources of newspaper data reflect the same trend according to Bowles: Newspaper circulation over the same period shows that daily and weekly circulation of sold newspapers has increased by 26%, free newspapers by 89% and all newspapers by just under 50%.
Community newspapers are looking particularly promising. An example is that of the Boksburg Advertiser. In 1985 the Boksburg Advertiser distributed 22 195 copies with 78% readership. In 2004, they distributed 40 000 copies with 91% readership.
Verified Free Distribution for community newspapers has increased from 2.2 million to 4.3 million copies (1995-2004), with confirmation that reach is growing as delivery increases being reflected in Caxton's consistent readership surveys.
"It's all quite logical when you see what's happening to the market. Consumers have a multitude of access point for any information these days. You can go anywhere for the information you need, be it TV, radio, press, magazines or Internet," says Bowles.
"It's media like community newspapers that have a very interesting model. The news they carry is very locally relevant and unique. General news providers just cannot compete on a localised level like that. This uniqueness is generating the demand for local news and information."
Newspapers catering for the middle class have seen major success. The likes of Daily Sun (400% increase in circulation since 2002) and Ilanga (15%) indicate where the growth is coming from while other established newspapers either lose circulation or remain stagnant.
By trending AMPS over 10 years the picture starts to unfold. There has been a 76% increase in black readership, 56% in LSM 4 and 78% in LSM 6, indicating a massive demand for newspapers amongst the emerging middle class.
"The newspaper industry has been fixated with the top end for too many years. It's no surprise that we see the success of the Daily Sun when you see the changing marketplace.
"What is surprising is that while the changes have been taking place, new newspapers continue to launch to the top end. If you do the research you'll see that newspaper readership in the top end (LSM 9-10) has remained very flat over 10 years. New readership is coming form the middle class in a big way."
He believes newspapers aren't in trouble, it's just the landscape that's changing: "As far as we see it, that change is in community newspaper growth and newspapers for the previously uncatered for middle class - that's the future of newspapers in South Africa."
He says that the top 30 newspaper advertisers in South Africa are increasing their commitment to newspapers and that newspaper's market share is understated: "Newspaper advertising revenue is not reflected comprehensively with classifieds and recruitment space not being measured by Adindex as well as loose insert revenue being well under represented due to the enormous production costs that are not associated with advertising expenditure. There could be as much as R2-billion missing from the current advertising pie for newspapers."
In the first world, where technological change has dramatically changed media consumption behaviour, the picture doesn't look terrifying for newspapers either. Newspapers command the most advertising share in the UK amongst all media spend and in the US, advertising expenditure on newspapers is second after direct mail and ahead of 3rd placed broadcast TV expenditure.
The South African newspaper industry is not getting complacent about the future either. Print Media of South Africa is currently addressing the situation through a newspaper industry group initiative designed to increase the medium's popularity and effectiveness.
