"This dip was to be expected," says Marc Sternberg, MD of Spark ATM Systems. "July's strong performance was due to the winter holiday break, and this year there were five full weekends in July, causing a big boost to cash withdrawals. With South Africans returning to the routine of work and studies after the July holiday, it was expected that cash withdrawal values would decrease somewhat."
Positive news is that this year's August value is 1.65% up on the value for August 2010 of R399. This is consistent with the general positive trend that the Index is showing, with most of this year's up on the corresponding month in 2010. "Consumer positivity is on the increase and August's value is still one of the highest since the launch of the SCI in 2007."
Stats South Africa's Retail Trade Sales (RTS) values follow the same pattern as SA cash withdrawal values. The SCI figures are released two months ahead of the RTS and act as a very good predictor of the trend that the RTS will follow. RTS can therefore be expected to take a sharp dip from July to August this year. The data presented is raw data and has not been adjusted for seasonality or for the effects of inflation.
The SCI is a useful 'real-time' gauge of consumer spending, utilising the company's ATM systems' network of over 1400 ATMs located countrywide to reflect accurate, broad and timely cash demand and utilisation data. These ATMs are typically located in convenience stores, petroleum stations, specialist retail nodes and leisure & hospitality venues.
