According to Marc Sternberg, MD of Spark ATM Systems, the stabilisation is in keeping with consumer cash withdrawal patterns recorded over the past four years. "Following the traditional post-festive season slump in January, consumer spending gradually starts to gather momentum again in February, returning to positive gains during the Easter holiday period."
According to Statistics SA, during 2011, retail sales rose 6.1%, up from 5.1% in 2010.
"This is positive news for consumer spending for the first half of 2012. Current factors such as high nominal income levels and interest rates remaining steady at near-30 year lows are helping to sustain household consumption, which is a key driver of our economy at almost 60% of overall gross domestic product."
Sternberg also points to a recent report by the Investment Property Databank (IPD), which measures retail trading densities for South Africa's largest shopping centres that there was a 4.9% year-on-year increase in 2011.
However, Sternberg warns that factors such as rising inflation and challenging global conditions may eat into disposable income, curbing household consumption in the second half of 2012.
Stats SA's Retail Trade Sales (RTS) values follow the same pattern as South Africa cash withdrawal values. Released two months ahead of the RTS, the SCI figures therefore predict the pattern that RTS will follow.
The SCI is a useful 'real-time' gauge of consumer spending, utilising the company's ATM systems' network of over 1400 ATMs located countrywide to reflect accurate, broad and timely cash demand and utilisation data. These ATMs are typically located in convenience stores, petroleum stations, specialist retail nodes and leisure & hospitality venues.
