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PMI expected to show third monthly contraction

3 Oct 2011

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is due this week. This key manufacturing survey will be keenly expected, given its reliability as an indicator of the health of the SA economy's second biggest sector. It is widely anticipated that the PMI will indicate that manufacturing activity contracted for the third month in a row last month, even though it may have happened at a slower pace than in August.

The PMI went up slightly to 46,7 in August from 44,2 in July.

Investec economist Kgotso Radira believes that the PMI will continue to show weakness in September, in line with weakening global growth conditions. He notes that a particular point of concern is "the deterioration in near-term and future demand growth expectations of purchasing managers."

It is expected that September's reading will remain below 50, the cut-off point between expansion and contraction. The PMI's expected business conditions as well as its new sales orders components have been falling for the three months in a row. There is growing consensus that manufacturing will contract further in the third quarter this year, after shrinking by 7% in the second quarter.

Read the full article on www.businessday.co.za.