Feathered crisis: How avian influenza is reshaping chicken prices in South Africa

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On 24 February 2025, the South African Poultry Association (SAPA) released a media statement emphasising the urgent need to address this crisis.

What’s happening on the ground?

In quarter four (Q4) of 2024, a report by the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) highlighted the effect of bird flu and other economic factors on the domestic prices of poultry products.

Compared to the previous quarter, prices of Individually Quick Frozen (IQF) chicken portions increased by 6.2%, whole fresh chicken rose by 2.1%, and frozen chicken prices dropped by 3.8%. Despite some price declines, the broader trend indicates that there is price instability.

Rising global maize prices, driven by low water levels along major sea freight routes such as Brazil's Madeira River and the United States of America’s (USA) Mississippi River, have significantly contributed to the higher cost of poultry products (FAO, 2025). Additionally, chicken imports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, further influencing the domestic market dynamics.

The economic fallout

The economic impact of bird flu has been devastating. In 2023 alone, over 9.6 million birds were culled, with 90% of long-living birds in greater Gauteng wiped out (Sapa, 2025). The financial damage amounted to a staggering R9.5bn (Sapa, 2025). Government interventions, such as import rebates, have done little to mitigate the crisis.

Instead, the influx of imports has placed local producers at a disadvantage, leading to volatile retail prices. By Q4 of 2024, non-IQF frozen chicken retail prices rose by 21.3%, fresh chicken portions increased by 16%, and whole fresh chicken went up by 8.7%.

What about farmers?

Farmers have borne the brunt of the crisis. The NAMC's real farm-to-retail price spread (FTRPS)i, which measures the gap between what consumers pay and what farmers earn, has seen notable shifts. Between October and December 2024, the real farm value share rose by 5.75%, while the real FTRPS for whole fresh chicken declined by 8.53%.

While this suggests that farmers are receiving a slightly larger share of retail prices, it does not compensate for the extensive losses caused by culling due to the bird flu outbreaks.

The push for vaccination

Sapa (2025) argues that the existing biosecurity measures and culling alone are insufficient to curb the spread of avian flu.

The poultry industry is advocating for vaccination, a strategy that has shown promise in countries like France, which immunized a flock of 20 million ducks.

However, South African farmers face significant challenges, including receiving no compensation for culled birds and the Department of Agriculture's vaccine approval process being costly and very bureaucratic.

Avian influenza, rising costs weigh on SA poultry industry, Sapa says

29 Jan 2025

The way forward

The avian influenza crisis has placed South Africa’s poultry industry at a crossroads. Short-term solutions, such as increased imports, may fill immediate supply gaps, but this is bound to weaken the domestic industry’s production capacity in the long run.

A sustainable path forward requires the following urgent actions:

1. Expediting the vaccine approval process(es) in line with Act 36,
2. Implementation of identification and traceability systems to improve biosecurity systems,
3. The implementation of technology-based smarter biosecurity to proactively track, trace and monitor areas prone to high risk,
4. Upscale capacity-building measures like cleaning, disinfection, and quarantine protocol as contingency plan.

If South Africa does not act swiftly, the poultry sector may suffer irreversible damage, threatening livelihoods, food security and nutrition due to the likely limited accessibility to and unaffordability of the country’s most important protein source. Now is the ripe time to intervene.

View NAMC's Poultry Products Price Monitor here.