Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, comments: "We have seen an almost unprecedented jump in consumer confidence this month. May's figures show the second largest rise ever - only May 1993 was higher, when it improved by 12 points. In the 449 months that the index has been running, single-month movement on this scale - either up or down - has only occurred on 10 occasions.
"But before the businesses celebrate, it should be pointed out that this is just one month's figure and it is far too early to know whether this could be the start of an upward trend. We are improving from a rock bottom position and consumer confidence is still deeply in the negative. So, whether the current spring in consumers' step is due to the feel-good factor of the Royal wedding and a double-whammy of sunny bank holidays, or to the recent let-up in negative reporting about the state of the economy, we are not out of the woods."
The overall index score this month has increased 10 points to -21, 3 points lower than this time last year. All 5 measures increased this month. The annual moving average drops 1 point to -23.
| Respectively for May 20 Apr 2011 May 2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Index score | -21 | -31 | -18 |
| Personal financial situation over last 12 months | -18 | -23 | -13 |
| Personal financial situation over next 12 months | -3 | -10 | -3 |
| General economic situation over last 12 months | -44 | -54 | -45 |
| General economic situation over next 12 months | -15 | -29 | -9 |
| Climate for major purchases | -26 | -31 | -21 |
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased 5 points this month to -18; this is 5 points lower than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has increased by 11 points this month, at -3; this is now the same level as May '10.
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has increased by 13 points to -44; 1 point higher than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next 12 months has increased by 15 points to -15, 6 points lower than May '10.
The major purchases measure has increased by 5 points to -26, which is 5 points lower than this time last year.
The 'now is a good time to save' Index, has increased 7 points to -1, which is 4 points higher than May '10.
About the survey
The GfK Association was established in 1934 as a non-profit organization for the promotion of market research. Its membership consists of approximately 600 companies and individuals. The purpose of the Association is to develop innovative research methods in close cooperation with academic institutions, to promote the training and further education of market researchers, to observe the structures and developments in society, the economy and politics that play a key role in private consumption, and to research their effects on consumers. Survey results are made available to the membership. The GfK Association is a shareholder in GfK SE.
Go to: http://www.gfk.com
