Global air cargo tonnages flatten as average rates further soften

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Figures for week 10 (6 to 12 March) show a small decrease (-1%) in worldwide tonnages compared with the previous week, which had seen a modest (+1%) tonnage rise. On the pricing side, global average rates remained stable compared with the previous week.

Comparing weeks 9 and 10 with the preceding two weeks, tonnages are up by +2% above their combined total in weeks 7 and 8, accompanied by a +2% increase in capacity, whereas average worldwide rates slightly declined by -2% – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

At a regional level, on a two-week basis, the post-Lunar New Year recovery in air cargo tonnages was still notable on ex-Asia Pacific flows to North America (+11%), Middle East & South Asia (+12%), and Europe (+6%), respectively. The most notable decreases were recorded ex-Middle East and South Asia to Asia Pacific (-8%), and ex-Africa to Europe (-6%).

Despite volumes rebounding in recent weeks, on the pricing side the average rates have continued to show a negative trend from all regions except the Asia Pacific, particularly ex-Europe (-4%), ex-North America (-3%), ex-Central and South America (-3%) and ex-Middle East and South Asia (-3%).

Year-on-year perspective

Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 9 and 10 was down -8% compared with the equivalent period last year. Tonnages ex-Asia Pacific are down by -8% whereas we reported last week a drop of -35%, although that comparison was skewed because Lunar New Year started ten days later last year, on 1 February compared with 22 January this year. There were also double-digit percent year-on-year drops in tonnages outbound from North America (-17%) and Middle East & South Asia (-11%).

Overall capacity has jumped by +15% compared with the previous year, with double-digit percentage increases from all regions. Most-notable increases were ex-Africa (+23%), ex-Europe (+18%) and ex-Middle East & South Asia (+15%).

Worldwide rates are currently -29% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.74 per kilo in week 10, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels.